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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-06-19T06:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-19T06:42Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8720/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption below AR12371. Faint front in C3
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T04:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -44
Dst min. time: 2015-06-22T17:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-23T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.

Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-06-19T17:00Z

Radial velocity (km/s): 400km/s
Longitude (deg): W15
Latitude (deg): S25
Half-angular width (deg): 55
Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 40.38 hour(s)
Difference: -21.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-06-20T12:28Z

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